Mar 17, 2022
(The below textversion of the notes is for search purposesand convenience. See the PDF version for proper formattingsuch as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable.Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)
Re17: Hypotheses to Eleven
Retraice^1
On `current history', or what might be going on out there.
Air date: Monday, 7th Mar. 2022, 4:20 PM Eastern/US.
What's GOOT
The point of departure for the Retraice podcast was`intelligence', which we divided into the natural, artificial andstrategic kinds.^2 The point of departure for Retraice, Inc. is thequestion `What's going on out there?' (What's GOOT).
An answer to What's GOOT is a hypothesis.
Current history
Specifically, such a hypothesis should be about `What's going tobe in the history books?', i.e. `current history', roughlyspeaking. This is a heuristic.^3 It's a good starting point becauseit gauges what humans care about, i.e. `the care factor'.^4
Examples since late 2020:
o covid--it started in early 2020, but since late 2020 it hascontinued to dominate politics and economies; o Jan 6th, 2021, theattack on the U.S. capital building; o Ukraine, the Feb. 24th, 2022Russian invasion.
Compare `current history' to news. There is a ton of news beingproduced every day, but most of it won't end up in historybooks.
Hypotheses [and some predictions]
Hypotheses make predictions, but are not themselvespredictions.
Here is our starting list (none of the below statements or[predictions] is well-formed or accepted by us; they're just to getthings started):
1.
Space: Humans are now technologically capable of living in space.Zubrin (2019).
Obviously, since Yuri Gagarin and the Vostok 1, humans havedemonstrated this capability. But duration and distance make a bigdifference, and independence is the gold standard. So if a humanlived his whole adult life aboard the International Space Station,as re-supplied by Earthlings, he would be an Earthling. If he didthe same thing on Mars, but received no supplies from Earth, he'dbe a Martian. If he somehow did it untethered to a single planet ormoon, he'd be a Spaceman.
The hypothesis, then, is that human Martians and Spacemen aretechnologically possible today. This hypothesis is stillproblematic because, in a sense, nothing is `technologicallypossible' until it has been demonstrated. So we would have tofurther qualify it by adding something like, `given a significantreallocation of resources and a certain interval of time.' Thepoint is, there is no longer a physical or technical barrier in theway; the barriers are economic and political.
Similar qualifications and asterisks will be necessary for allthe below hypotheses; we'll leave most of them unsaid.
1.1.
[prediction]: Humans will soon live on Mars. Zubrin (1996).
To make this a useful prediction, i.e. useful for the purpose oftesting the hypothesis, we have to (at least) define `soon'.
1.2.
Humans should prioritize space exploration at least to mitigaterisk, at most to fulfill the potential of Earth-originating life.Hawking (2018) chpts. 7-8; Zubrin (2019) part 1.
1.3.
The Fermi Paradox is an ominous warning about risks to life ingeneral. For an overview, see Cirkovic (2008) p. 131 ff. For acontrary argument, see Ord (2020) p. 53 ff. and the notes on pages309 ff.
2.
Technology: Human technology risks are growing faster than theirmitigation. Rees (2003) pp. 74-75; Bostrom (2019); Sanger (2018) p.323; Sapolsky (2018) pp. 619-620.
I.e. technology generally, as used by terrorists and psychos andwell-meaning fools, and thought of as the increase in individualleverage, is causing risk to out-pace mitigation.
2.1.
AI: Machines are beginning to resemble intelligent creatures. Dyson(1997) pp. xii, 101, 181, 191-192, 194; Dyson (2015); Dyson(2020).
2.2.
Hacking is disproportionately dangerous to civilizations. Perlroth(2020) p. 388 ff.; Sanger (2018) pp. 320-324; Kaplan (2016) pp.276-277.
2.3.
Runaway bio or nano tech is physically possible. Nouri & Chyba(2008); Phoenix & Treder (2008).
3.
Death: Human lifespan is being prolonged by new technologies.Gawande (2014) pp. 32-36; Johnson (2014) pp. 140-142; Walter (2020)pp. 44-46; Durant & Durant (1968) p. 99.
3.1.
A longevity `escape velocity' is physically possible. de Grey(2007) p. 330, and p. 362 for the history of the term.
4.
China: The U.S. is no longer the only superpower; war is likely.Allison (2018); Pillsbury (2015); Spalding (2019); Kilcullen(2020); Lee (2018); Osnos (2020/01/06).
4.1.
The U.S. is declining. Orlov (2008); Putnam (2015); Chomsky (2017);Reid (2017) pp. 11, 212-218, p. 249 ff.
4.2.
China is rising. Allison (2018); Mitter (2008); Pillsbury(2015).
4.3.
[prediction]: Civilizational collapse (of the US and/or Chinaand/or Russia) will happen within our lifetimes.
How long is `our lifetimes'? What if all three collapse due to aglobal collapse? This prediction needs lots of work.
5.
Civil War: The U.S. seems vulnerable to a civil war this decade.Walter (2022).
`Seems' is crucial here. Even if it's not strictly vulnerable(given an objective definition of vulnerable^5 , the perceptionthat it is vulnerable would have significant effects. And `thisdecade' is an arbitrary boundary. What if war broke out Jan. 1st,2030, which is less than 8 years from now?
6.
Environment: Humans are changing their earthly environment fasterthan they can adapt to it.
In a sense, this is strictly not true, since if we weren'tadapting to it, we'd be dead. But credible, smart people are sayingthat this is the direction we're headed. Rees (2003) chpt. 8;Bostrom & Cirkovic (2008) chpt. 13; Ord (2020) pp. 102-119.
6.1.
The Earth seems to be warming up significantly. Ord (2020) p. 103and sources cited; Romm (2016) pp. 2-3; Pogue (2021) p. 9.
Again, the word `seems' means that there will be effects whetheror not the warming is `significant'.
6.2.
Humans are in the middle of an extinction event. Rees (2008) p. v;Rees (2003) p. 100 ff.; Ord (2020) p. 117 ff.
7.
Betterment: Some things make the future better than the past.
The most obvious and uncontroversial is: reduction of violence.See Pinker (2011) chpts. 1-7 on the history of it and Sapolsky(2018)'s response to Pinker, pp. 615-620.
Two more obvious and uncontroversial things that make the futurebetter than the past are: reduction of cruelty and reduction ofsuffering. Baumeister (1999) pp. 375-378.
Alternatively, for a definition of `progress' we might use "theincreasing control of the environment by life." Durant & Durant(1968) p. 98.
Alternatively again, for a definition of `progress' we mightsay, increasing "the transmission of our mental, moral, technical,and aesthetic heritage as fully as possible to as many aspossible", i.e. `education'. Durant & Durant (1968) p. 101.
On the complexity of what each of us considers `better',consider the concept of `caring'. See Frankfurt (1988) and Retraice(2020/11/10).
8.
Intelligence: There are intelligence differences. Herrnstein &Murray (1996); Sternberg (2020); Deary (2001). Also, see Sapolsky(2018) p. 582 on IQ and death row, and Baumeister (1999) pp.263-264 on self-control and crime.
9.
Darkness: There is a pervasive darkness in humans, even amongst thegood guys.
+ Salter (2003) pp. 10-14 on pervasiveness;
+ Pinker (2011) chpt. 8, especially pp. 490-492 and Baumeister(1999), e.g. pp. 68-69 and chpt. 8, on universality, i.e. `evenamongst the good guys';
+ Sapolsky (2018) pp. 602-603 and p. 611 on biological andenvironmental components of criminal behavior and (perceived)wrongdoing.
Obviously our definition of `darkness' and `good guys' makes allthe difference. But consider:
+ Shirer (1959), e.g. pp. 231-232 and pp. 239-240, on thecomplacency of non-Nazi Germans;
+ O'Donnell (2004), e.g. pp. 54-55, on the brutality of wartimeespionage;
+ Stephens-Davidowitz (2018) pp. 6-7 and pp. 121-122 on theugliness of our Google searches;
+ Simler & Hanson (2018) pp. 5-14 on our ulterior motives,primarily selfishness;
+ Chomsky (1970) pp. 3-4 on `the backroom boys', i.e. chemists atDow Chemical who made napalm a more and more vicious weapon,pleasing at least one American pilot. Chomsky is quoting a captionfrom a photo book about the Vietnam war, Griffiths (1971).
+ Sapolsky (2018) chpt. 13 on the biological underpinnings of moralbehavior;
+ Baumeister (1999) p. 205 and Salter (2003) pp. 104-105 on theacquired nature of sadism.
9.1.
Good guys with darkness are yet good.
Examples require first defining `darkness' and `good'. Butconsider how many world leaders, reasonably credited with doinggood things, also had/have dark sides. Can we really decide that apresident (JFK, adultery), or an activist (MLK, adultery), or apolitician (W. Bush, Iraq), or a general (Powell, Iraq), or amusician (Eminem, misogynist language), or a comedian (Chappelle,misogynist language), or an athlete (Armstrong, doping) who hasdone wrong is therefor a bad guy? But `not bad guy' is a poordefinition of `good guy'. So what is the threshold of good things(as defined by which or how many people) a person must do to beconsidered `good'?
(Note: We're not unaware that this list is all men, and that`guy' can be read as referring only to men. Please consider thatexamples of women who have famously done good but also famouslydone bad are harder to construct, and that we use `guys' as asingle-syllable synonym for `people' or `persons'.)
9.2.
What makes the darkness so powerful is a general unwillingness toacknowledge it.
This hypothesis needs a lot of work, but consider:
o Pinker (2011) p. 492 and Simler & Hanson (2018) chpt. 5 onself-deception;
o Salter (2003) chpt. 9 on `rose-colored glasses and trauma';
o Baumeister (1999) p. 379 on the stereotype of `pure evil'.
10.
Wealth: The current trend toward concentration of wealth is makinghuman life worse. Chomsky (2017) pp. ix-xi; Putnam (2015) p. 35.These sources focus on the U.S. For a global perspective on thepast two decades, showing a slight decrease in concentration, seeShorrocks et al. (2019) p. 25 ff.
The hypothesis is obviously sensitive to definitions of `humanlife' and `better/worse'.
11.
Wildcards: New technologies, new discoveries about reality, anddeception regularly cause historic changes.
Considerations and candidates:
+ Hamming (2020) pp. 10-12 on history, technology and`fundamental forces';
+ Bostrom (2011) on the dangers of certain kinds of (true)information;
+ Bostrom (2019) on `black ball' inventions;
+ Simler & Hanson (2018), e.g. p. 30, on the competitive basis ofhuman deception and detection;
+ Grabo (2002) chpt. 7 on the difficulty of the problem ofdeception;
+ Vallee (1979) pp. 67-68 on science problems vs. counterespionageproblems;
+ Keyhoe (1950), an early journalistic account of UFOsightings;
+ Lazar (2019), a seemingly credible scientist's account of amassive conspiracy;
+ Dolan (2000) and Dolan (2009), a seemingly competent historian'sdocumentation of evidence consistent with a massive conspiracy;
+ Kelleher & Knapp (2005), a scientist's and journalist's seeminglycredible account of bizarre observations and reports;
+ Johnson (2014), a history of the dramatic effects of new scienceand technologies;
+ Andrew (2018), a history of secrets kept;
+ Diamond (1997) p. 426 ff., arguing that uneven distribution ofresources significantly affects human history, and Frank & Bernanke(2001) pp. 535-537 and Zubrin (2019) p. 303, arguing that what is aresource depends on available technology.
What's next?
Given what we know (or believe):
* How should we test the hypotheses?
* What can we do about them?
* What should we do?
__
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Footnotes
^1 https://www.retraice.com/retraice
^2 Re1 (Retraice (2020/09/07)) outlines the scope, and Re1-Re13cover the kinds.
^3 We're using the computer science meaning of heuristic, i.e. asimple but imperfect way of solving a hard problem. The psychologymeaning, i.e. answering a hard question by unconsciouslysubstituting it with an easier, related one, is slightly different.The difference is that we're consciously substituting the hardquestion with the easier one. Cf. Russell & Norvig (2020) p. 84,Kahneman (2011) p. 98.
^4 Retraice (2020/11/10). But history has some reliabilityproblems (Hamming (2020) pp. 10-12) and a noise problem (Durant &Durant (1968) p. 97).
^5 Cf. Walter (2022) p. 198, "Civil wars are rare...."
